Baltimore, MD, June 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Throughout financial history, investors have asked the same question:
What do insiders know?
Financial researcher Jim Rickards believes that question deserves renewed attention as the artificial-intelligence boom enters a new phase.
In a new free presentation, Rickards examines insider selling activity, executive decision-making, and why periods of extraordinary optimism often create unusual signals for investors.
A Familiar Pattern
Every major market cycle creates two groups.
Those closest to the business.
And everyone else.
Insiders generally possess a deeper understanding of customer demand, operating costs, competitive pressures, and future expectations.
That does not mean insiders always make the correct decisions.
Nor does it mean investors should blindly follow insider activity.
However, Rickards argues that these signals become increasingly interesting when valuations reach historic extremes, particularly because outside investors are often the last to recognize a shift in the underlying story.
Rickards points to a psychological phenomenon researchers call extrapolation bias, the tendency to assume that because something has happened recently, it will likely continue happening. He has studied this pattern firsthand. Rickards was personally called in to help negotiate a Federal Reserve bailout of Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund run by some of the highest-IQ minds in finance, including a Nobel Prize-winning economist, that nearly collapsed the U.S. financial system after assuming the future would resemble the recent past.
According to Rickards, the same bias that blinded that room full of geniuses can affect entire markets, including today's AI boom.
The Importance of Expectations
According to Rickards, today's AI market may ultimately come down to one question:
Can reality keep pace with expectations?
Investors have already expressed extraordinary confidence in AI's future. Rob Arnott, an investor and researcher who has authored more than 150 academic publications, has described the assumption of unlimited AI growth as a classic market delusion, comparable to the dot-com era.
Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, who once managed more than $118 billion in assets, has said plainly that this is a bubble and that the odds it doesn't eventually burst are slim to none.
What remains uncertain is how quickly those expectations will translate into measurable financial results. A survey from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that 90% of firms reported AI has had no measurable impact on their employment or productivity so far. Some of AI's own leading researchers have raised similar concerns.
Yann LeCun, Meta's longtime chief AI scientist, has said large language models, the technology underlying most of today's AI products, represent a dead end. Cognitive scientist and AI researcher Gary Marcus has gone further, warning that once the broader market realizes current valuations were built on assumptions of limitless scaling that haven't held up, the resulting financial reckoning could happen quickly.
That is why Rickards believes insider activity deserves attention.
Not because it predicts the future.
But because it can offer clues about how those closest to the story are thinking about risk.
Looking Ahead
Rickards points to July 29th as a date worth watching.
Major AI player, Meta is expected to provide earnings updates and forward guidance.
This reports may offer investors one of the clearest opportunities yet to compare expectations with actual business performance. Rickards notes that market turning points often arrive with little warning.
On Christmas Day 1989, near the height of Japan's technology and real estate boom, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. Within days, the Japanese stock market began a collapse it would not fully recover from for nearly 35 years. Rickards believes a disappointing round of AI earnings this summer could trigger a comparably swift shift in sentiment.
About the Presentation
Jim Rickards explores insider activity, market psychology, and the future of the AI boom in a free presentation available now. Click HERE to watch.
About Jim Rickards and Paradigm Press
Jim Rickards has participated in high-level discussions involving financial crises, economic warfare, and market stability for much of his professional career. His background includes work with the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, CIA, and Pentagon, where he specialized in evaluating systemic financial threats.
Paradigm Press is one of the most widely read independent financial research publishers in the United States, rated 4.8 stars on Google across more than 1,900 reviews. Free from advertiser influence, Paradigm Press is committed to helping everyday Americans understand the forces shaping their wealth.
Derek Warren Public Relations Manager Paradigm Press Group Email: dwarren@paradigmpressgroup.com
